PRE-VACCINE SCENARIOS TO HELP SUPPLY CHAIN LEADERS TO SET THEIR BUSINESS UP FOR SUCCESS
Dr.D.Sathishkumar, Asst.Professor, SIMS
As the corona virus continues to disrupt global supply chains, Gartner developed three scenarios to help chief supply chain officers (CSCOs) prepare for recovery and make pre-emptive decisions to set up their organizations for success.
Gartner polled 833 IT and IT/business professionals and found that 84% of organizations are facing varying forms of disruption—from slight disruptions to operations being reduced, restricted, or closed.
Scenario planning enables supply chain leaders to anticipate how the corona virus disruption will unfold and identify both risk and opportunities. It provides CSCOs with the data to demand investments in supply chain resiliency and agility.
The three scenarios are Short term disruption, Long term disruption and Secondary Crisis which are as follows,
Scenario 1: Short Term Disruption: In this Scenario, there is significant impact from corona virus in the short term, ultimately restrictions are lifted and customer’s confidence increases. A quick move in to the recovery phase also creates short term competition for logistics services. Space on planes, trucks, and ocean carriers will be in high demand and result in increased costs. CSCOs must work with their logistics partners to plan ahead and priortize shipment based on customer demand, shelf life and anticipated competitor position.
Scenario 2: Long term Disruption: This scenario describes a world in which the virus takes longer to contain, and restrictions remain in place for many months. Customer confidence declines and a recession follow. In long term consumer behaviour and spending habits may change as financial insecurity will increase the emphasis on personal financing resilience which may decrease spending on luxury goods. Consumers are likely to stick with e-commerce channels driven by concerns about physically shopping in stores.
Scenario 3: Secondary Crisis: After organizations experience either the first or second scenario it’s also possible that a second disruption will follow caused by corona virus, natural disaster or other major incidents.
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